🧮 Step-by-Step Recalculation (based on 45% recovery)
- Key Assumptions
• Number of GP surgeries in the UK: ~6,300
• Average annual energy spend per surgery: £20,000 (midpoint)
• Average contract duration: 3 years
• Number of contract cycles since 2000: ~7 cycles (from 2000 to 2025)
• Commission overcharge: 45% of total energy cost per year
💡 45% of £20,000 = £9,000 overcharged per year
⸻
- Overcharge Per Surgery Since 2000
• £9,000/year × 3 years = £27,000 per 3-year contract
• Over 7 cycles:
£27,000 × 7 = £189,000 per surgery over 25 years
⸻
- Total Potential Mis-Selling Value (All Surgeries)
Assume:
• 50% of surgeries affected (conservative):
6,300 × 50% = 3,150 surgeries
• 3,150 × £189,000 = £595,350,000
✅ Estimated total value: ~£595 million
⸻
- Alternative Scenario: Only 25% Affected
• 6,300 × 25% = 1,575 surgeries
• 1,575 × £189,000 = £297,675,000
🎯 Estimated value: ~£298 million
📌 Final Summary
Assumed % of GP Surgeries Affected
Estimated Total Value of Claims
25% (1 in 4)
– £298 million
50% (1 in 2)
– £595 million
100%
– £1.19 billion